Ecoforecast Africa

Jasper Slingsby

Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town

South African Environmental Observation Network, Fynbos Node

What is ecological forecasting?




More specifically: Iterative Near-term Ecological Forecasting

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting


Seeks to make prediction a central focus in ecology, on a time scale that is both useful for decision makers and allows us to learn from testing our predictions (i.e. days to decades)


  • (Automatically) iteratively updat as new data becomes available allowing ongoing assessment, refinement and improved accuracy.
  • The “gold standard” is a reproducible informatics pipeline that can ingest new data and make new forecasts automatically with minimal user input.
  • This poses a number of major challenges and requires a big improvement in quantitative skills in biology.
  • Fortunately, any steps towards the gold standard are likely to be useful, even if we never get there.

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting

This can also be represented as a cycle, mirroring the scientific method:

From (Dietze2018?)

The key steps are:

  1. Make a forecast based on initial conditions
  2. Compare your forecast to new observations
  3. Analyse the new observations in the context of your forecast and original data
  4. Update estimates of the current state of the system (data and understanding), before making a new forecast

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting

Iterative ecological forecasts are thus aimed at:

  1. applied outcomes, through providing evidence to support decision making
  2. knowledge generation through iterative learning i.e. the scientific method

So it’s a great way of getting scientists to engage in real-world problems, demonstrating the value of our science, and learning by doing!

Iterative ecological forecasting in context

This figure from Dietze et al. 2018 provides an expanded representation of these conceptual links between iterative ecological forecasting, the scientific method, and decision making (here in the context of adaptive management, which is a management paradigm that focuses on learning by doing).

Why an EFI for Africa?

Most data products that inform global policy are developed in the Global North, but these are erroneous in places, largely due to lack of local knowledge…

Being “stakeholders” is not good enough. We need Africans holding the reigns.

www.globalforestwatch.org

Everyone else is getting one?

We don’t want Africa left behind… again…

The South contribute significant data

We just need the skills and resources to make the most of it!

Although Africa is lagging behind…

And more than half of GBIF records are from South Africa (38,145,962 records).

Hopefully showing the value of our own data to our decision makers will improve this.

So what are we doing?

Web form to collect expressions of interest

  • Building a community of practice to develop ecoforecasting capacity in Africa

  • Held our first meeting to discuss and plan the way forward a few weeks ago

    • Early days, but we have a lot of interest and enthusiasm
    • Now’s a good time to get involved if you’d like to help steer the ship

  • Visit the website - https://ecoforecast.africa

So what are we doing?


  • Running an in-person training workshop
    • 21-25 July 2025
    • Cape Town, South Africa
  • Instruction led by Prof Mike Dietze, Boston University, USA and EFI founder
    • Supported by SEEC and others
  • Visit the website for more - https://ecoforecast.africa
    • Or sign up using this the QR code

Interest in Ecoforecast Africa so far?

Africa 21 (12 countries) | North America 11 | Europe 6 | Asia 4 | Many from or work in Africa

Interest in Ecoforecast Africa so far?

Interest in Ecoforecast Africa so far?


Great willingness to contribute skills!!! Especially from members of other EFIs


Much interest in research collaboration too!

Where to from here?

Visit ecoforecast.africa
  • Sign up!!!
    • To join Ecoforecast Africa
    • To participate in the course


  • What model the African EFI adopts is till in flux. While we are kickstarting the initiative, we do not claim ownership and invite broad participation, diverse perspectives and suggestions for the best leadership model.

  • Students welcome!

Thanks!!!

https://ecoforecast.africa