Jasper Slingsby
Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town
South African Environmental Observation Network, Fynbos Node
Seeks to make prediction a central focus in ecology, on a time scale that is both useful for decision makers and allows us to learn from testing our predictions (i.e. days to decades)
This can also be represented as a cycle, mirroring the scientific method:
The key steps are:
Iterative ecological forecasts are thus aimed at:
So it’s a great way of getting scientists to engage in real-world problems, demonstrating the value of our science, and learning by doing!
This figure from Dietze et al. 2018 provides an expanded representation of these conceptual links between iterative ecological forecasting, the scientific method, and decision making (here in the context of adaptive management, which is a management paradigm that focuses on learning by doing).
Most data products that inform global policy are developed in the Global North, but these are erroneous in places, largely due to lack of local knowledge…
Being “stakeholders” is not good enough. We need Africans holding the reigns.
www.globalforestwatch.org
We don’t want Africa left behind… again…
We just need the skills and resources to make the most of it!
And more than half of GBIF records are from South Africa (38,145,962 records).
Hopefully showing the value of our own data to our decision makers will improve this.
Building a community of practice to develop ecoforecasting capacity in Africa
Held our first meeting to discuss and plan the way forward a few weeks ago
Visit the website - https://ecoforecast.africa
Africa 21 (12 countries) | North America 11 | Europe 6 | Asia 4 | Many from or work in Africa
Great willingness to contribute skills!!! Especially from members of other EFIs
Much interest in research collaboration too!
What model the African EFI adopts is till in flux. While we are kickstarting the initiative, we do not claim ownership and invite broad participation, diverse perspectives and suggestions for the best leadership model.
Students welcome!
https://ecoforecast.africa